• Nebraska at Virginia Tech
I'm trying to come up with any reason at all that this game should be any different than last year's, won 35-30 by the Hokies in Lincoln, and the only thing I can come up with is the locale. I'm sure both teams are hoping for more from their quarterbacks, but the Va. Tech offense has continued to revolve around emerging freshman backs Ryan Williams and David Wilson, with little appreciable progress from Tyrod Taylor as a passer. And with all due respect to Zac Lee's fine start against two of the finer defenses of the Sun Belt, the next quarterback I take against a Bud Foster D in his first road start will be the first.
Nebraska should have plenty of chances to pull something out here, if only because the Hokie M.O. against relative equals remains "defense, special teams, embrace the field goal." The Huskers will have the drop if they're able to score a little bit and force Taylor out of his comfort zone in an effort to pass Tech back in it, but if Williams and/or Wilson settles into a rhythm and Foster's defense is its usual, back-breaking self, that will always be the Hokies' fight.
• Florida State at BYU
The
line on this game has slowly crept up by about a full point over the course of the week, as the proverbial experts weigh "narrow win over Oklahoma" against "narrow win over Jacksonville State" and come down increasingly for the Cougars in a colossal home game; I'm a sucker for
the more athletic team myself. But even though Miami's assault on Georgia Tech Thursday night somewhat absolves the FSU secondary for its lackadaisical debut against the 'Canes on Labor Day, I think the difference will be on the other side: The BYU defense was holding the prolific Sooner attack in check before Sam Bradford went down in the opener, and has given up six points and zero touchdowns in the six quarters since. Florida State showed its endemic sloppiness with three fumbles and a litany of missed opportunities that let JSU hang around, and that won't fly against a rolling, veteran outfit in Provo.
• Michigan State at Notre Dame
I actually feel a little better about the Spartans
after their loss to Central Michigan, at least offensively, because they finally found something they appear to be at least somewhat good at: In split time, Kirk Cousins is
one of the highest-rated quarterbacks in the country through the first two weeks, a far cry from the mediocre Brian Hoyer the last two years. Problem: Jimmy Clausen is on that list, too, and gets an MSU secondary that was just carved to pieces by Central Michigan. No offense to the Chippewas or their own star quarterback, but Dan LeFevour didn't have Michael Floyd or Golden Tate at his disposal, and Michigan's corners can testify to the difference.
• Cincinnati at Oregon State
Speaking of highly-rated quarterbacks: Tony Pike is up there, too, after a couple unconscious efforts against Rutgers and, uh, Southeast Missouri State; the Bearcats currently running neck and neck with Florida for largest margins of victory in the country, a pretty good stat to have in your pocket against a team that couldn't put away UNLV last week until the dying seconds. As much as I respect the Cincy offense, though, even on the road, I only have one question about this game: Is Jacquizz Rodgers suiting up for Oregon State? And is he still being fed an absurd number of carries for his size? Yes and yes? Then I'll take my chances with the Beavers, struggling secondary and all, in a frustrating, clock-killing affair that leaves Bearcats wondering where the time went. (Answer: Quizz killed it. He is a master.)
• Georgia at Arkansas
The Razorbacks are
a two-point favorite at home, which surprises me even though I'm leaning toward Arkansas for the first big win of the Petrino/Mallett era. Georgia
got away with a sketchy defensive effort last week by forcing a slew of field goals against South Carolina; Mallett is a less-mobile, stronger-armed version of Stephen Garcia, also working under the tutelage of a respected passing guru trying to find the spark again at a traditional also-ran. I respect Georgia's defense and Mark Richt's sparkling road record, but as for the offense's ability to keep up in another shootout, not so much. It's hard to dodge two bullets in a row.
• West Virginia at Auburn
An early judgment day for two revamped offenses: WVU unleashed a much pass-friendier attack on East Carolina, still managing to get quarterback Jarrett Brown loose for 80 rushing yards on top of a 300-yard, four-touchdown passing day that had Skip Holtz
pining for Pat White. Auburn opened up with its first 500-yard game since 2005, and
did it again last week against Mississippi State. The Tigers won't be able to overpower WVU in the running game the way they did La. Tech and Miss. State (Ben Tate and Onterrio McCalebb are currently 1-2 on the SEC rushing list), but new coordinator Gus Malzahn's schematic pixie dust seems to have rubbed off a little bit on Chris Todd, so far probably the most improved quarterback in the country. (He's actually moving the offense!) Combine the offensive turnaround with the home field and the usual defensive tenacity, and I'm willing to
go with the chalk.
• Utah at Oregon
This is Oregon's last chance to avoid being written off completely as a borderline terrible team until further notice: The Ducks fell on their face in all respects against Boise State and were carved up by Purdue in a too-close-for-comfort win. Utah is awash in question marks, notably at quarterback, that no margins of victory over Utah State and/or San Jose State will effectively answer, and Oregon's running game did show far more signs of life last week even without LeGarrette Blount. The Ducks can still go either way, but if they're carved up on defense for the third week in a row, the immediate direction is obvious.
• California at Minnesota
The Gophers have escaped two straight embarrassing losses with fourth-quarter comebacks in the final two minutes. No more of that here: So far, Cal's offense has looked as balanced, versatile and explosive as the Bears could have hoped; Minnesota's offense has been sluggish against Syracuse and Air Force and ranks next-to-last in the Big Ten in yards and points despite the two wins. Cal should probably be disappointed if this one's even within the grasp of a fourth-quarter rally.
• Arizona at Iowa
Iowa
a) Rebounded nicely from the opening-day unpleasantness with Northern Iowa for a more convincing win over Iowa State;
b) Remains an exceptional defensive team, allowing less than 12 points per game on a six-game winning streak dating back to last November; and
c) Gets an Arizona offense
missing its best player and manned by a quarterback in his first road start. Nothing about the Hawkeyes is exciting or even impressive, but they are functional, and should be wandering into Penn State next week at 3-0.
